research product . Other ORP type . 2019

Assessing Simulations of Imperial Dynamics and Conflict in the Ancient World

Madge, J.; Colavizza, G.; Hetherington, J.; Guo, W.; Wilson, A.;
Open Access English
  • Published: 01 Jan 2019
  • Country: Netherlands
Abstract
The development of models to capture large-scale dynamics in human history is one of the core contributions of cliodynamics. Most often, these models are assessed by their predictive capability on some macro-scale and aggregated measure and compared to manually curated historical data. In this report, we consider the model from Turchin et al. (2013), where the evaluation is done on the prediction of "imperial density": The relative frequency with which a geographical area belonged to large-scale polities over a certain time window. We implement the model and release both code and data for reproducibility. We then assess its behavior against three historical data...
Subjects
free text keywords: Cultural Studies, Modelling and Simulation, History, Sociology and Political Science
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Digital Humanities and Cultural Heritage
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