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Bacterial infections resulting from wars and natural disasters represent a major public health problem. Over the past 50 years, Asia and the Middle East have suffered several wars. Moreover, East-A...

AbstractThis study models local and cross-city transmissions of the novel coronavirus in China between January 19 and February 29, 2020. We examine the role of various socioeconomic mediating factors, including public health measures that encourage social distancing in local communities. Weather characteristics 2 weeks prior are used as instrumental variables for causal inference. Stringent quarantines, city lockdowns, and local public health measures imposed in late January significantly decreased the virus transmission rate. The virus spread was contained by the middle of February. Population outflow from the outbreak source region posed a higher risk to the destination regions than other factors, including geographic proximity and similarity in economic conditions. We quantify the effects of different public health measures in reducing the number of infections through counterfactual analyses. Over 1.4 million infections and 56,000 deaths may have been avoided as a result of the national and provincial public health measures imposed in late January in China.

J. Kr., A.M. and C.P. are grateful for support from DFG grant number KR 4015/1-1, the Carl-Zeiss Foundation and the Baden Württemberg Foundation. S. P., G. R., Q. F., C. F., K. P., S.C. and J.Ke. acknowledge support from the Presidential Innovation Fund of the Max Planck Society. G.R. was supported by an NSERC fellowship. J.G.S. acknowledges use of the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE), which is supported by NSF grant number OCI-1053575. E.B. and O.B. were supported by RFBR grants 13-06-00670, 13-04-01711, 13-04-90420. B.M. was supported by grants OTKA 73430 and 103983. A.Saj. was supported by a Finnish Professor Pool (Paulo Foundation) Grant. The Lithuanian sampling was supported by the LITGEN project (VP1-3.1-ŠMM-07-K-01-013), funded by the European Social Fund under the Global Grant Measure. A.S. was supported by Spanish grants SAF2011-26983 and EM 2012/045. O.U. was supported by Ukrainian SFFS grant F53.4/071. S.A.T. was supported by NIH Pioneer Award 8DP1ES022577-04 and NSF HOMINID award BCS-0827436. K.T. was supported by an Indian CSIR Network Project (GENESIS: BSC0121). L.S. was supported by an Indian CSIR Bhatnagar Fellowship. R.V., M.M., J.P. and E.M. were supported by the European Union Regional Development Fund through the Centre of Excellence in Genomics to the Estonian Biocentre and University of Tartu and by an Estonian Basic Research grant SF0270177As08. M.M. was additionally supported by Estonian Science Foundation grant number 8973. J.G.S. and M.S. were supported by NIH grant GM40282. P.H.S. and E.E.E. were supported by NIH grants HG004120 and HG002385. D.R. and N.P. were supported by NSF HOMINID award BCS-1032255 and NIH grant GM100233. This project has been funded in part with federal funds from the National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, under contract HHSN26120080001E. This Research was supported in part by the Intramural Research Program of the NIH, National Cancer Institute, Center for Cancer Research We sequenced the genomes of a ∼7,000-year-old farmer from Germany and eight ∼8,000-year-old hunter-gatherers from Luxembourg and Sweden. We analysed these and other ancient genomes with 2,345 contemporary humans to show that most present-day Europeans derive from at least three highly differentiated populations: west European hunter-gatherers, who contributed ancestry to all Europeans but not to Near Easterners; ancient north Eurasians related to Upper Palaeolithic Siberians, who contributed to both Europeans and Near Easterners; and early European farmers, who were mainly of Near Eastern origin but also harboured west European hunter-gatherer related ancestry. We model these populations' deep relationships and show that early European farmers had ∼44% ancestry from a 'basal Eurasian' population that split before the diversification of other non-African lineages.