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9 Research products, page 1 of 1

  • Digital Humanities and Cultural Heritage
  • Publications
  • Research data
  • 01 natural sciences
  • Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO)
  • Digital Humanities and Cultural Heritage
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  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    van Bavel, B.J.P.; Curtis, Daniel; Hannaford, Matthew; Moatsos, M.; Roosen, Joris; Soens, Tim; LS Transities v. economie en samenleving; OGKG - Sociaal-economische geschiedenis; LS Economische Geschiedenis;
    Countries: Netherlands, Belgium
    Project: EC | COORDINATINGFORLIFE (339647), NWO | CLARIAH Common Lab Resear... (2300184354)

    Recent advances in paleoclimatology and the growing digital availability of large historical datasets on human activity have created new opportunities to investigate long‐term interactions between climate and society. However, noncritical use of historical datasets can create pitfalls, resulting in misleading findings that may become entrenched as accepted knowledge. We demonstrate pitfalls in the content, use and interpretation of historical datasets in research into climate and society interaction through a systematic review of recent studies on the link between climate and (a) conflict incidence, (b) plague outbreaks and (c) agricultural productivity changes. We propose three sets of interventions to overcome these pitfalls, which involve a more critical and multidisciplinary collection and construction of historical datasets, increased specificity and transparency about uncertainty or biases, and replacing inductive with deductive approaches to causality. This will improve the validity and robustness of interpretations on the long‐term relationship between climate and society. This article is categorized under: Climate, History, Society, Culture > Disciplinary Perspectives Recent literature investigating long‐term interactions between climate and society increasingly utilizes historical big data. Too often this is done without applying historical criticism, which may lead to misguided narratives. We propose a set of interventions to avoid this and optimize the use of historical datasets.

  • Publication . Other literature type . Article . Preprint . 2018
    Open Access
    Authors: 
    T. Y. M. Konijnendijk; S. L. Weber; E. Tuenter; M. van Weele;
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Project: NWO | Evolution of astronomical... (2300157723)

    Methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) variations on orbital timescales are often associated with variations in wetland coverage, most notably in the summer monsoon areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Here we test this assumption by simulating orbitally forced variations in global wetland emissions, using a simple wetland distribution and CH<sub>4</sub> emissions model that has been run on the output of a climate model (CLIMBER-2) containing atmosphere, ocean and vegetation components. The transient climate modeling simulation extends over the last 650 000 yr and includes variations in land-ice distribution and greenhouse gases. Tropical temperature and global vegetation are found to be the dominant controls for global CH<sub>4</sub> emissions and therefore atmospheric concentrations. The relative importance of wetland coverage, vegetation coverage, and emission temperatures depends on the specific climatic zone (boreal, tropics and Indian/Asian monsoon area) and timescale (precession, obliquity and glacial-interglacial timescales). Despite the low spatial resolution of the climate model and crude parameterizations for methane production and release, simulated variations in CH<sub>4</sub> emissions agree well with those in measured concentrations, both in their time series and spectra. The simulated lags between emissions and orbital forcing also show close agreement with those found in measured data, both on the precession and obliquity timescale. We find causal links between atmospheric CH<sub>4</sub> concentrations and tropical temperatures and global vegetation, but only covariance between monsoon precipitation and CH<sub>4</sub> concentrations. The primary importance of the first two factors explains the lags found in the CH<sub>4</sub> record from ice cores. Simulation of the dynamical vegetation response to climate variation on orbital timescales would be needed to reduce the uncertainty in these preliminary attributions.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Noorbergen, Lars J.; Abels, Hemmo A.; Hilgen, Frits J.; Robson, Brittany E.; de Jong, Edwin; Dekkers, Mark J.; Krijgsman, Wout; Smit, Jan; Collinson, Margaret E.; Kuiper, Klaudia F.; +4 more
    Country: Netherlands
    Project: NWO | Tephrostratigraphy and ge... (2300178871), NWO | Tephrostratigraphy and ge... (2300178871)

    Fluvial systems in which peat formation occurs are typified by autogenic processes such as river meandering, crevasse splaying and channel avulsion. Nevertheless, autogenic processes cannot satisfactorily explain the repetitive nature and lateral continuity of many coal seams (compacted peats). The fluvial lower Palaeocene Tullock Member of the Fort Union Formation (Western Interior Williston Basin; Montana, USA) contains lignite rank coal seams that are traceable over distances of several kilometres. This sequence is used to test the hypothesis that peat formation in the fluvial system was controlled by orbitally forced climate change interacting with autogenic processes. Major successions are documented with an average thickness of 6·8 m consisting of ca 6 m thick intervals of channel and overbank deposits overlain by ca 1 m thick coal seam units. These major coal seams locally split and merge. Time-stratigraphic correlation, using a Cretaceous-Palaeogene boundary event horizon, several distinctive volcanic ash-fall layers, and the C29r/C29n magnetic polarity reversal, shows consistent lateral recurrence of seven successive major successions along a 10 km wide fence panel perpendicular to east/south-east palaeo-flow. The stratigraphic pattern, complemented by stratigraphic age control and cyclostratigraphic tests, suggests that the major peat-forming phases, resulting in major coal seams, were driven by 100 kyr eccentricity-related climate cycles. Two distinct conceptual models were developed, both based on the hypothesis that the major peat-forming phases ended when enhanced seasonal contrast, at times of minimum precession during increasing eccentricity, intensified mire degradation and flooding. In model 1, orbitally forced climate change controls the timing of peat compaction, leading to enhancement of autogenic channel avulsions. In model 2, orbitally forced climate change controls upstream sediment supply and clastic influx determining the persistence of peat-forming conditions. At the scale of the major successions, model 2 is supported because interfingering channel sandstones do not interrupt lateral continuity of major coal seams.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Pierik, H.J.; Van Lanen, Rowin; Gouw-Bouman, M.T.I.J.; Groenewoudt, Bert; Wallinga, Jakob; Hoek, W.Z.; Biogeomorphology of Rivers and Estuaries; Geomorfologie; Coastal dynamics, Fluvial systems and Global change;
    Country: Netherlands
    Project: NWO | The Dark Age of the Lowla... (2300172486)

    Holocene drift-sand activity in the northwest European sand belt is commonly directly linked to population pressure (agricultural activity) or to climate change (e.g. storminess). In the Pleistocene sand areas of the Netherlands, small-scale Holocene drift-sand activity began in the Mesolithic, whereas large-scale sand drifting started during the Middle Ages. This last phase not only coincides with the intensification of farming and demographic pressure but also is commonly associated with a colder climate and enhanced storminess. This raises the question to what extent drift-sand activity can be attributed to either human activities or natural forcing factors. In this study, we compare the spatial and temporal patterns of drift-sand occurrence for the four characteristic Pleistocene sand regions in the Netherlands for the period between 1000 BC and AD 1700. To this end, we compiled a new supra-regional overview of drift-sand activity based on age estimates (14C, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), archaeological and historical ages). The occurrence of sand drifting was then compared in time and space with historical-route networks, relative vegetation openness and climate. Results indicate a constant but low drift-sand activity between 1000 BC and AD 1000, interrupted by a remarkable decrease in activity around the BC/AD transition. It is evident that human pressure on the landscape was most influential on initiating sand drifting: this is supported by more frequent occurrences close to routes and the uninterrupted increase of drift-sand activity from AD 900 onwards, a period of high population density and large-scale deforestation. Once triggered by human activities, this drift-sand development was probably further intensified several centuries later during the cold and stormier ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA; AD 1570–1850).

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Contreras, L.; Pross, J.; Bijl, P.K.; O'Hara, R.B.; Raine, J.I.; Sluijs, A.; Brinkhuis, H.; NWO-NNPP: Reconstructing the evolution and dynamics of the Antarctic cryosphere from Ocean Drilling; a dinoflagellate perspective; NWO-VENI: The Dawn of Greenhouse Earth: climate and carbon cycle dynamics of the Palaeocene; Marine palynology and palaeoceanography;
    Countries: Germany, Netherlands
    Project: EC | DINOPRO (259627), NWO | The Dawn of a Greenhouse ... (2300180216)

    Reconstructing the early Palaeogene climate dynamics of terrestrial settings in the high southern latitudes is important to assess the role of high-latitude physical and biogeochemical processes in the global climate system. However, whereas a number of high-quality Palaeogene climate records has become available for the marine realm of the high southern latitudes over the recent past, the long-term evolution of coeval terrestrial climates and ecosystems is yet poorly known. We here explore the climate and vegetation dynamics on Tasmania from the middle Palaeocene to the early Eocene (60.7–54.2 Ma) based on a sporomorph record from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1172 on the East Tasman Plateau. Our results show that three distinctly different vegetation types thrived on Tasmania under a high-precipitation regime during the middle Palaeocene to early Eocene, with each type representing different temperature conditions: (i) warm-temperate forests dominated by gymnosperms that were dominant during the middle and late Palaeocene (excluding the middle/late Palaeocene transition); (ii) cool-temperate forests dominated by southern beech (Nothofagus) and araucarians that transiently prevailed across the middle/late Palaeocene transition interval (~ 59.5 to ~ 59.0 Ma); and (iii) paratropical forests rich in ferns that were established during and in the wake of the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). The transient establishment of cool-temperate forests lacking any frost-sensitive elements (i.e. palms and cycads) across the middle/late Palaeocene transition interval indicates markedly cooler conditions, with the occurrence of frosts in winter, on Tasmania during that time. The integration of our sporomorph data with previously published TEX86-based sea-surface temperatures from ODP Site 1172 documents that the vegetation dynamics on Tasmania were closely linked with the temperature evolution in the Tasman sector of the Southwest Pacific region. Moreover, the comparison of our season-specific climate estimates for the sporomorph assemblages from ODP Site 1172 with the TEX86L- and TEX86H-based temperature data suggests a warm bias of both calibrations for the early Palaeogene of the high southern latitudes.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Craig A. Grove; Jens Zinke; Frank Peeters; Wonsun Park; Tim Scheufen; Sebastian Kasper; Bemahafaly Randriamanantsoa; Malcolm T. McCulloch; Geert-Jan A Brummer;
    Countries: Germany, Netherlands, Netherlands, Netherlands
    Project: NWO | CLIMATCH:Climatic and ant... (2300160903)

    Abstract. Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SST) influence rainfall variability on multidecadal and interdecadal timescales in concert with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Rainfall variations in locations such as Australia and North America are therefore linked to phase changes in the PDO. Furthermore, studies have suggested teleconnections exist between the western Indian Ocean and Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV), similar to those observed on interannual timescales related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, as instrumental records of rainfall are too short and sparse to confidently assess multidecadal climatic teleconnections, here we present four coral climate archives from Madagascar spanning up to the past 300 yr (1708–2008) to assess such decadal variability. Using spectral luminescence scanning to reconstruct past changes in river runoff, we identify significant multidecadal and interdecadal frequencies in the coral records, which before 1900 are coherent with Asian-based PDO reconstructions. This multidecadal relationship with the Asian-based PDO reconstructions points to an unidentified teleconnection mechanism that affects Madagascar rainfall/runoff, most likely triggered by multidecadal changes in North Pacific SST, influencing the Asian Monsoon circulation. In the 20th century we decouple human deforestation effects from rainfall-induced soil erosion by pairing luminescence with coral geochemistry. Positive PDO phases are associated with increased Indian Ocean temperatures and runoff/rainfall in eastern Madagascar, while precipitation in southern Africa and eastern Australia declines. Consequently, the negative PDO phase that started in 1998 may contribute to reduced rainfall over eastern Madagascar and increased precipitation in southern Africa and eastern Australia. We conclude that multidecadal rainfall variability in Madagascar and the western Indian Ocean needs to be taken into account when considering water resource management under a future warming climate.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Geert W. van der Plas; Erik J. de Boer; Henry Hooghiemstra; F. B. Vincent Florens; Cláudia Baider; Johannes van der Plicht;
    Country: Netherlands
    Project: NWO | Mauritius since the last ... (2300155042)

    A 10 m long peat core from the Kanaka Crater (20 degrees 25' S, 57 degrees 31' E), located at 560 m elevation in Mauritius, was analyzed for microfossils. Eight radiocarbon ages show the pollen record reflects environmental and climatic change of the last ca. 38 cal ka BP. The record shows that the island was continuously covered by forest with Erica heath (Philippia) in the uplands. Cyperaceous reedswamp with Pandanus trees was abundant in the coastal lowlands as well as locally in the waterlogged crater. The record shows changes in climatic humidity (wet from 38.0 to 22.7 cal ka BP, drier from 22.7 to 10.6 cal ka BP, and wetter again from 10.6 cal ka BP to recent) as the main response to climate change. A high turnover in montane forest species is evidenced at 22.7 cal ka BP and at the start of the Holocene. The limited altitudinal ranges in the mountains of Mauritius (maximum altitude 828 m), and changing humidity being more important than changing temperature, suggests that in response to climate change a reassortment in taxonomic composition of montane forests might be equally important as displacement of forest types to new altitudinal intervals. We found weak impact of the latitudinal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and data suggest that the Indian Ocean Dipole is a more important driver for climatic change in the southwest Indian Ocean. Copyright (c) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  • Open Access
    Authors: 
    Diederik Liebrand; Lucas Joost Lourens; David A. Hodell; B. de Boer; R. S. W. van de Wal; Heiko Pälike;
    Countries: United Kingdom, Netherlands, United Kingdom
    Project: NWO | Evolution of astronomical... (2300157723), EC | GTSNEXT (215458), NWO | Milankovitch climate forc... (1700114816), NWO | Evolution of astronomical... (2300157723), EC | GTSNEXT (215458), NWO | Milankovitch climate forc... (1700114816)

    Abstract. Stable isotope records of benthic foraminifera from ODP Site 1264 in the southeastern Atlantic Ocean are presented which resolve the latest Oligocene to early Miocene (~24–19 Ma) climate changes at high temporal resolution (<3 kyr). Using an inverse modelling technique, we decomposed the oxygen isotope record into temperature and ice volume and found that the Antarctic ice sheet expanded episodically during the declining phase of the long-term (~400 kyr) eccentricity cycle and subsequent low short-term (~100 kyr) eccentricity cycle. The largest glaciations are separated by multiple long-term eccentricity cycles, indicating the involvement of a non-linear response mechanism. Our modelling results suggest that during the largest (Mi-1) event, Antarctic ice sheet volume expanded up to its present-day configuration. In addition, we found that distinct ~100 kyr variability occurs during the termination phases of the major Antarctic glaciations, suggesting that climate and ice-sheet response was more susceptible to short-term eccentricity forcing at these times. During two of these termination-phases, δ18O bottom water gradients in the Atlantic ceased to exist, indicating a direct link between global climate, enhanced ice-sheet instability and major oceanographic reorganisations.

  • Open Access
    Authors: 
    Didier M. Roche; Hans Renssen; Didier Paillard; G. Levavasseur;
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Countries: Netherlands, Netherlands, France
    Project: NWO | Impact of changing freshw... (2300129442)

    Abstract. Understanding the sequence of events occuring during the last major glacial to interglacial transition (21 ka BP to 9 ka BP) is a challenging task that has the potential to unveil the mechanisms behind large scale climate changes. Though many studies have focused on the understanding of the complex sequence of rapid climatic change that accompanied or interrupted the deglaciation, few have analysed it in a more theoretical framework with simple forcings. In the following, we address when and where the first significant temperature anomalies appeared when using slow varying forcing of the last deglaciation. We used here coupled transient simulations of the last deglaciation, including ocean, atmosphere and vegetation components to analyse the spatial timing of the deglaciation. To keep the analysis in a simple framework, we did not include freshwater forcings that potentially cause rapid climate shifts during that time period. We aimed to disentangle the direct and subsequent response of the climate system to slow forcing and moreover, the location where those changes are more clearly expressed. In a data – modelling comparison perspective, this could help understand the physically plausible phasing between known forcings and recorded climatic changes. Our analysis of climate variability could also help to distinguish deglacial warming signals from internal climate variability. We thus are able to better pinpoint the onset of local deglaciation, as defined by the first significant local warming and further show that there is a large regional variability associated with it, even with the set of slow forcings used here. In our model, the first significant hemispheric warming occurred simultaneously in the North and in the South and is a direct response to the obliquity forcing.