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description Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Research , Article , Conference object 2024 Germany EnglishPublisher:Philipps-Universität Marburg Authors: Baumgärtner, Martin; Zahner, Johannes;Baumgärtner, Martin; Zahner, Johannes;doi: 10.17192/es2024.0703
handle: 10419/280939 , 10419/264019 , 10419/244359
Dictionary approaches are at the forefront of current techniques for quantifying central bank communication. This paper proposes embeddings - a language model trained using machine learning techniques - to locate words and documents in a multidimensional vector space. To accomplish this, we utilize a text corpus that is unparalleled in size and diversity in the central bank communication literature, as well as introduce a novel approach to text quantification from computational linguistics. This allows us to provide high-quality central bank-specific textual representations and demonstrate their applicability by developing an index that tracks deviations in the Fed's communication towards inflation targeting. Our findings indicate that these deviations in communication significantly impact monetary policy actions, substantially reducing the reaction towards inflation deviation in the US.
add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.17192/es2024.0703&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen 0 citations 0 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!more_vert add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.17192/es2024.0703&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Research , Other literature type , Article 2024Publisher:Elsevier BV Authors: Lochner, Benjamin; Merkl, Christian;Lochner, Benjamin; Merkl, Christian;handle: 10419/262303 , 10419/265677 , 10419/282813
In diesem Papier untersuchen wir das geschlechterspezifische Bewerbungs- und Einstellungsverhalten sowie deren Implikationen für die Lohnlücke. Um die zugrundeliegenden Mechanismen besser zu verstehen, leiten wir aus einem zweistufigen Matching-Modell Implikationen her, die wir auf Basis der IAB-Stellenerhebung überprüfen. Es zeigt sich, dass die Muster in den Daten konsistent mit der Theorie von linearen und nichtlinearen Produktionsfunktionen sind. Wir dokumentieren, dass sich Frauen seltener bei Hochlohn- als bei Niedriglohnfirmen bewerben. Dahingegen finden wir keinen statistisch signifikanten Unterschied in der Einstellungswahrscheinlichkeit zwischen Männern und Frauen, wenn sie sich bei Hochlohnfirmen bewerben. Diese Muster sprechen gegen die Diskriminierungshypothese aus dem theoretischen Modell, lassen sich aber dadurch erklären, dass Jobs bei Hochlohnfirmen höhere arbeitgeberseitige Flexibilitätsanforderungen haben. Wir zeigen, dass der Anteil der männlichen Bewerber in verschiedenen, beobachtbaren Flexibilitätsanforderungen ansteigt. Wenn wir den Anteil der männlichen Bewerber in Mincer-Lohnregressionen als zusätzliche erklärende Variable für Flexibilitätsanforderungen aufnehmen, sinkt der Geschlechterunterschied im Einstellungslohn zwischen Männern und Frauen um etwa 50-60 Prozent. Frauen, die in Jobs eingestellt werden, bei denen sich viele Männer bewerben, verdienen signifikant mehr als Frauen, die in vergleichbaren Jobs eingestellt werden, bei denen sich ausschließlich Frauen bewerben. Wenn Frauen mit Kindern Jobs mit hohen Flexibilitätsanforderungen annehmen, müssen sie dahingegen große Lohneinbußen im Vergleich zu Männern hinnehmen. This paper opens up the black box of gender-specific application and hiring behavior and its implications for the residual gender earnings gap. To understand the underlying mechanisms, we propose a two-stage matching model with testable implications. Using the German IAB Job Vacancy Survey, we show that the patterns in the data are in line with linear and nonlinear production functions at different jobs. Women's application probability at high-wage firms is much lower than at low-wage firms. By contrast, women have the same probability of being hired as men when they apply at high-wage firms. These patterns are not in line with taste-based discrimination, but they can be rationalized by high-wage firms that ask for more employer-sided flexibility. We show that the share of male applicants increases in various dimensions of employer-sided flexibility requirements. Adding the share of male applicants as a proxy for flexibility requirements to Mincer wage regressions reduces the residual earnings gap by around 50 to 60 percent. Women who match at jobs with a high share of male applicants earn substantially more than women at comparable jobs with only females in the application pool (due to compensating differentials). By contrast, when women with children match at these jobs, they face large earnings discounts relative to men.
EconStor arrow_drop_down https://doi.org/10.48720/iab.d...Other literature type . 2022License: CC BY SAData sources: Dataciteadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.2139/ssrn.4682470&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen bronze 0 citations 0 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!more_vert EconStor arrow_drop_down https://doi.org/10.48720/iab.d...Other literature type . 2022License: CC BY SAData sources: Dataciteadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.2139/ssrn.4682470&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Research 2023 Switzerland, GermanyPublisher:Elsevier BV Authors: Lena Dräger; Michael J. Lamla;Lena Dräger; Michael J. Lamla;After the financial crisis of 2008, central banks around the world have increased their communication efforts to reach consumers, with the aim of both guiding and anchoring their inflation expectations. For the expectations channel of monetary policy to work as intended, central banks need a thorough understanding of the formation process of expectations by the general public and of the relationship between expectations and economic choices. This warrants reliable and detailed data on consumers' expectations of macroeconomic variables such as inflation or interest rates. We, thus, survey the available survey data and issues regarding the measurement of macroeconomic expectations. Furthermore, we discuss the research frontier on important aspects of the expectations channel: We evaluate the evidence on whether expectations are formed consistently with standard macroeconomic relationships, discuss the insights with respect to the anchoring of inflation expectations, explore the role of narratives and preferences and lastly, we survey the research on causal effects of central bank communication on expectations and economic choices. Journal of Economic Surveys, 38 (2) ISSN:0950-0804 ISSN:1467-6419
Research Collection arrow_drop_down Universitätsbibliographie, Universität Duisburg-EssenArticle . 2023Data sources: Universitätsbibliographie, Universität Duisburg-EssenJournal of Economic SurveysArticle . 2023 . Peer-reviewedLicense: CC BY NC NDData sources: CrossrefInstitutionelles Repositorium der Leibniz Universität HannoverOther literature type . Article . 2023License: CC BY NC NDadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.2139/ssrn.4610990&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen hybrid 0 citations 0 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!more_vert Research Collection arrow_drop_down Universitätsbibliographie, Universität Duisburg-EssenArticle . 2023Data sources: Universitätsbibliographie, Universität Duisburg-EssenJournal of Economic SurveysArticle . 2023 . Peer-reviewedLicense: CC BY NC NDData sources: CrossrefInstitutionelles Repositorium der Leibniz Universität HannoverOther literature type . Article . 2023License: CC BY NC NDadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.2139/ssrn.4610990&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Conference object 2023 GermanyPublisher:Elsevier BV Authors: Förster, Manuel; Habermacher, Daniel;Förster, Manuel; Habermacher, Daniel;doi: 10.2139/ssrn.4373351
handle: 10419/277613
We investigate competition between experts with different motives. A policy-maker has to implement a policy and can either acquire information herself or hire a biased but well-informed expert. We show that the expert charges a fee if interests between the agents are roughly aligned, and pays contributions in order to get the decision delegated—and thus acts as a lobbyist instead of as an advisor—if the conflict of interest is substantial and the policy is important to her. We then introduce an unbiased career-concerned expert and show that lobbying may occur because of competition. Finally, the effect of competition on societal welfare may be negative if policy is (not) important to society but the unbiased expert provides bad (good) advice.
EconStor arrow_drop_down Publications at Bielefeld UniversityArticle . 2023License: "In Copyright" Rights StatementData sources: Publications at Bielefeld Universityadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.2139/ssrn.4373351&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen bronze 0 citations 0 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!more_vert EconStor arrow_drop_down Publications at Bielefeld UniversityArticle . 2023License: "In Copyright" Rights StatementData sources: Publications at Bielefeld Universityadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.2139/ssrn.4373351&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Research 2023Embargo end date: 21 Jul 2023 Germany EnglishPublisher:Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin Authors: Foltas, Alexander;Foltas, Alexander;doi: 10.18452/27015
handle: 10419/273564
I propose a novel approach to uncover business cycle reports' priorities and relate them to economic fluctuations. To this end, I leverage quantitative business-cycle forecasts published by leading German economic research institutes since 1970 to estimate the proportions of latent topics in associated business cycle reports. I then employ a supervised approach to aggregate topics with similar themes, thus revealing the proportions of broader macroeconomic subjects. I obtain measures of forecasters' subject priorities by extracting the subject proportions' cyclic components. Correlating these priorities with key macroeconomic variables reveals consistent priority patterns throughout economic peaks and troughs. The forecasters prioritize inflation-related matters over recession-related considerations around peaks. This finding suggests that forecasters underestimate growth and overestimate inflation risks during contractive monetary policies, which might explain their failure to predict recessions. Around troughs, forecasters prioritize investment matters, potentially suggesting a better understanding of macroeconomic developments during those periods compared to peaks.
add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.18452/27015&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen 0 citations 0 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!visibility 113visibility views 113 download downloads 51 Powered bymore_vert add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.18452/27015&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Research , Other literature type , Report 2023 GermanyPublisher:Elsevier BV Authors: Hanushek, Eric A.; Kinne, Lavinia; Sancassani, Pietro; Woessmann, Ludger;Hanushek, Eric A.; Kinne, Lavinia; Sancassani, Pietro; Woessmann, Ludger;Decisions to invest in human capital depend on people's time preferences. We show that differences in patience are closely related to substantial subnational differences in educational achievement, leading to new perspectives on longstanding within-country disparities. We use social-media data – Facebook interests – to construct novel regional measures of patience within Italy and the United States. Patience is strongly positively associated with student achievement in both countries, accounting for two-thirds of the achievement variation across Italian regions and one-third across U.S. states. Results also hold for six other countries with more limited regional achievement data.
add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.2139/ssrn.4580835&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen bronze 0 citations 0 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!more_vert add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.2139/ssrn.4580835&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Research , Article 2023 NetherlandsPublisher:Elsevier BV Funded by:EC | Corruption RootsEC| Corruption RootsLeib, Margarita; Köbis, Nils; Rilke, Rainer Michael; Hagens, Marloes; Irlenbusch, Bernd;Artificial Intelligence (AI) increasingly becomes an indispensable advisor. New ethical concerns arise if AI persuades people to behave dishonestly. In an experiment, we study how AI advice (generated by a Natural-Language-Processing algorithm) affects (dis)honesty, compare it to equivalent human advice, and test whether transparency about advice source matters. We find that dishonesty-promoting advice increases dishonesty, whereas honesty-promoting advice does not increase honesty. This is the case for both AI- and human advice. Algorithmic transparency, a commonly proposed policy to mitigate AI risks, does not affect behaviour. The findings mark the first steps towards managing AI advice responsibly. Comment: * shared first-authorship This is an updated version of the pre-print arXiv:2102.07536 with a new data set
MPG.PuRe arrow_drop_down arXiv.org e-Print ArchiveOther literature type . Preprint . 2023Data sources: arXiv.org e-Print Archiveadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.2139/ssrn.4503049&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen hybrid 0 citations 0 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!more_vert MPG.PuRe arrow_drop_down arXiv.org e-Print ArchiveOther literature type . Preprint . 2023Data sources: arXiv.org e-Print Archiveadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.2139/ssrn.4503049&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Research , Other literature type , Book , Article 2023 GermanyPublisher:Elsevier BV Authors: Lars Winkelmann; Wenying Yao;Lars Winkelmann; Wenying Yao;This article studies high-frequency econometric methods to test for a jump in the spread of bond yields. We propose a coherent inference procedure that detects a jump in the yield spread only if at least one of the two underlying bonds displays a jump. Ignoring this inherent connection by basing inference only on a univariate jump test applied to the spread tends to overestimate the number of jumps in yield spreads and puts the coherence of test results at risk. We formalize the statistical approach in the context of an intersection union test in multiple testing. We document the relevance of coherent tests and their practicability via simulations and real data examples.
Hertie School Resear... arrow_drop_down Hertie School Research RepositoryResearch . 2023License: CC BYData sources: Hertie School Research Repositoryadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.2139/ssrn.4558472&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen bronze 0 citations 0 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!more_vert Hertie School Resear... arrow_drop_down Hertie School Research RepositoryResearch . 2023License: CC BYData sources: Hertie School Research Repositoryadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.2139/ssrn.4558472&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Preprint , Research , Article , Conference object 2023Publisher:Elsevier BV Authors: Moghadam, Hamed Markazi; Puhani, Patrick A.; Tyrowicz, Joanna;Moghadam, Hamed Markazi; Puhani, Patrick A.; Tyrowicz, Joanna;handle: 10419/277582 , 10419/272230 , 10419/272666 , 10419/270735
To determine how wives' and husbands' retirement options affect their spouses' (and their own) labour supply decisions, we exploit (early) retirement cutoffs by way of a regression discontinuity design. Several German pension reforms since the early 1990s have gradually raised women's retirement age from 60 to 65, but also increased ages for several early retirement pathways affecting both sexes. We use German Socio-Economic Panel data for a sample of couples aged 50 to 69 whose retirement eligibility occurred (i) prior to the reforms, (ii) during the transition years, and (iii) after the major set of reforms. We find that, prior to the reforms, when several retirement options were available to both husbands and wives, both react almost symmetrically to their spouse reaching an early retirement age, that is both husband and wife decrease their labour supply by about 5 percentage points when the spouse reaches age 60). This speaks in favour of leisure complementarities. However, after the set of reforms, when retiring early was much more difficult, we find no more significant labour supply reaction to the spouse reaching a retirement age, whereas reaching one's own retirement age still triggers a significant reaction in labour supply. Our results may explain some of the diverse findings in the literature on asymmetric reactions between husbands and wives to their spouse reaching a retirement age: such reactions may in large parts depend on how flexibly workers are able to retire.
add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.2139/ssrn.4406587&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen bronze 0 citations 0 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!more_vert add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.2139/ssrn.4406587&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Conference object , Article 2023Publisher:Elsevier BV Authors: Pagenhardt, Laura; Große Steffen, Christoph; Rieth, Malte;Pagenhardt, Laura; Große Steffen, Christoph; Rieth, Malte;doi: 10.2139/ssrn.4325153
handle: 10419/242330
We study the impact of fiscal rules on macroeconomic performance following natural disaster shocks, using dynamic panel models and quarterly data for 89 countries. We find that countries with fiscal rules perform significantly better in the aftermath of such shocks than countries without rules. GDP, private consumption and investment are persistently higher. The superior performance is associated with more expansionary fiscal policy, which hinges critically on larger fiscal space and escape clauses. We rationalize the findings in a quantitative model of sovereign default. The model replicates the empirical dynamics and shows that tight fiscal rules create fiscal space in good times that can be used in bad times for deficit-spending.
add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.2139/ssrn.4325153&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen bronze 0 citations 0 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!more_vert add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.2139/ssrn.4325153&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
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description Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Research , Article , Conference object 2024 Germany EnglishPublisher:Philipps-Universität Marburg Authors: Baumgärtner, Martin; Zahner, Johannes;Baumgärtner, Martin; Zahner, Johannes;doi: 10.17192/es2024.0703
handle: 10419/280939 , 10419/264019 , 10419/244359
Dictionary approaches are at the forefront of current techniques for quantifying central bank communication. This paper proposes embeddings - a language model trained using machine learning techniques - to locate words and documents in a multidimensional vector space. To accomplish this, we utilize a text corpus that is unparalleled in size and diversity in the central bank communication literature, as well as introduce a novel approach to text quantification from computational linguistics. This allows us to provide high-quality central bank-specific textual representations and demonstrate their applicability by developing an index that tracks deviations in the Fed's communication towards inflation targeting. Our findings indicate that these deviations in communication significantly impact monetary policy actions, substantially reducing the reaction towards inflation deviation in the US.
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For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen 0 citations 0 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!more_vert add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
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For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Research , Other literature type , Article 2024Publisher:Elsevier BV Authors: Lochner, Benjamin; Merkl, Christian;Lochner, Benjamin; Merkl, Christian;handle: 10419/262303 , 10419/265677 , 10419/282813
In diesem Papier untersuchen wir das geschlechterspezifische Bewerbungs- und Einstellungsverhalten sowie deren Implikationen für die Lohnlücke. Um die zugrundeliegenden Mechanismen besser zu verstehen, leiten wir aus einem zweistufigen Matching-Modell Implikationen her, die wir auf Basis der IAB-Stellenerhebung überprüfen. Es zeigt sich, dass die Muster in den Daten konsistent mit der Theorie von linearen und nichtlinearen Produktionsfunktionen sind. Wir dokumentieren, dass sich Frauen seltener bei Hochlohn- als bei Niedriglohnfirmen bewerben. Dahingegen finden wir keinen statistisch signifikanten Unterschied in der Einstellungswahrscheinlichkeit zwischen Männern und Frauen, wenn sie sich bei Hochlohnfirmen bewerben. Diese Muster sprechen gegen die Diskriminierungshypothese aus dem theoretischen Modell, lassen sich aber dadurch erklären, dass Jobs bei Hochlohnfirmen höhere arbeitgeberseitige Flexibilitätsanforderungen haben. Wir zeigen, dass der Anteil der männlichen Bewerber in verschiedenen, beobachtbaren Flexibilitätsanforderungen ansteigt. Wenn wir den Anteil der männlichen Bewerber in Mincer-Lohnregressionen als zusätzliche erklärende Variable für Flexibilitätsanforderungen aufnehmen, sinkt der Geschlechterunterschied im Einstellungslohn zwischen Männern und Frauen um etwa 50-60 Prozent. Frauen, die in Jobs eingestellt werden, bei denen sich viele Männer bewerben, verdienen signifikant mehr als Frauen, die in vergleichbaren Jobs eingestellt werden, bei denen sich ausschließlich Frauen bewerben. Wenn Frauen mit Kindern Jobs mit hohen Flexibilitätsanforderungen annehmen, müssen sie dahingegen große Lohneinbußen im Vergleich zu Männern hinnehmen. This paper opens up the black box of gender-specific application and hiring behavior and its implications for the residual gender earnings gap. To understand the underlying mechanisms, we propose a two-stage matching model with testable implications. Using the German IAB Job Vacancy Survey, we show that the patterns in the data are in line with linear and nonlinear production functions at different jobs. Women's application probability at high-wage firms is much lower than at low-wage firms. By contrast, women have the same probability of being hired as men when they apply at high-wage firms. These patterns are not in line with taste-based discrimination, but they can be rationalized by high-wage firms that ask for more employer-sided flexibility. We show that the share of male applicants increases in various dimensions of employer-sided flexibility requirements. Adding the share of male applicants as a proxy for flexibility requirements to Mincer wage regressions reduces the residual earnings gap by around 50 to 60 percent. Women who match at jobs with a high share of male applicants earn substantially more than women at comparable jobs with only females in the application pool (due to compensating differentials). By contrast, when women with children match at these jobs, they face large earnings discounts relative to men.
EconStor arrow_drop_down https://doi.org/10.48720/iab.d...Other literature type . 2022License: CC BY SAData sources: Dataciteadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
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For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen bronze 0 citations 0 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!more_vert EconStor arrow_drop_down https://doi.org/10.48720/iab.d...Other literature type . 2022License: CC BY SAData sources: Dataciteadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
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For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Research 2023 Switzerland, GermanyPublisher:Elsevier BV Authors: Lena Dräger; Michael J. Lamla;Lena Dräger; Michael J. Lamla;After the financial crisis of 2008, central banks around the world have increased their communication efforts to reach consumers, with the aim of both guiding and anchoring their inflation expectations. For the expectations channel of monetary policy to work as intended, central banks need a thorough understanding of the formation process of expectations by the general public and of the relationship between expectations and economic choices. This warrants reliable and detailed data on consumers' expectations of macroeconomic variables such as inflation or interest rates. We, thus, survey the available survey data and issues regarding the measurement of macroeconomic expectations. Furthermore, we discuss the research frontier on important aspects of the expectations channel: We evaluate the evidence on whether expectations are formed consistently with standard macroeconomic relationships, discuss the insights with respect to the anchoring of inflation expectations, explore the role of narratives and preferences and lastly, we survey the research on causal effects of central bank communication on expectations and economic choices. Journal of Economic Surveys, 38 (2) ISSN:0950-0804 ISSN:1467-6419
Research Collection arrow_drop_down Universitätsbibliographie, Universität Duisburg-EssenArticle . 2023Data sources: Universitätsbibliographie, Universität Duisburg-EssenJournal of Economic SurveysArticle . 2023 . Peer-reviewedLicense: CC BY NC NDData sources: CrossrefInstitutionelles Repositorium der Leibniz Universität HannoverOther literature type . Article . 2023License: CC BY NC NDadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
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You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.2139/ssrn.4610990&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen hybrid 0 citations 0 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!more_vert Research Collection arrow_drop_down Universitätsbibliographie, Universität Duisburg-EssenArticle . 2023Data sources: Universitätsbibliographie, Universität Duisburg-EssenJournal of Economic SurveysArticle . 2023 . Peer-reviewedLicense: CC BY NC NDData sources: CrossrefInstitutionelles Repositorium der Leibniz Universität HannoverOther literature type . Article . 2023License: CC BY NC NDadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
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For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Conference object 2023 GermanyPublisher:Elsevier BV Authors: Förster, Manuel; Habermacher, Daniel;Förster, Manuel; Habermacher, Daniel;doi: 10.2139/ssrn.4373351
handle: 10419/277613
We investigate competition between experts with different motives. A policy-maker has to implement a policy and can either acquire information herself or hire a biased but well-informed expert. We show that the expert charges a fee if interests between the agents are roughly aligned, and pays contributions in order to get the decision delegated—and thus acts as a lobbyist instead of as an advisor—if the conflict of interest is substantial and the policy is important to her. We then introduce an unbiased career-concerned expert and show that lobbying may occur because of competition. Finally, the effect of competition on societal welfare may be negative if policy is (not) important to society but the unbiased expert provides bad (good) advice.
EconStor arrow_drop_down Publications at Bielefeld UniversityArticle . 2023License: "In Copyright" Rights StatementData sources: Publications at Bielefeld Universityadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
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For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen bronze 0 citations 0 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!more_vert EconStor arrow_drop_down Publications at Bielefeld UniversityArticle . 2023License: "In Copyright" Rights StatementData sources: Publications at Bielefeld Universityadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.2139/ssrn.4373351&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Research 2023Embargo end date: 21 Jul 2023 Germany EnglishPublisher:Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin Authors: Foltas, Alexander;Foltas, Alexander;doi: 10.18452/27015
handle: 10419/273564
I propose a novel approach to uncover business cycle reports' priorities and relate them to economic fluctuations. To this end, I leverage quantitative business-cycle forecasts published by leading German economic research institutes since 1970 to estimate the proportions of latent topics in associated business cycle reports. I then employ a supervised approach to aggregate topics with similar themes, thus revealing the proportions of broader macroeconomic subjects. I obtain measures of forecasters' subject priorities by extracting the subject proportions' cyclic components. Correlating these priorities with key macroeconomic variables reveals consistent priority patterns throughout economic peaks and troughs. The forecasters prioritize inflation-related matters over recession-related considerations around peaks. This finding suggests that forecasters underestimate growth and overestimate inflation risks during contractive monetary policies, which might explain their failure to predict recessions. Around troughs, forecasters prioritize investment matters, potentially suggesting a better understanding of macroeconomic developments during those periods compared to peaks.
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For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen 0 citations 0 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!visibility 113visibility views 113 download downloads 51 Powered bymore_vert add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
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You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.18452/27015&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Research , Other literature type , Report 2023 GermanyPublisher:Elsevier BV Authors: Hanushek, Eric A.; Kinne, Lavinia; Sancassani, Pietro; Woessmann, Ludger;Hanushek, Eric A.; Kinne, Lavinia; Sancassani, Pietro; Woessmann, Ludger;Decisions to invest in human capital depend on people's time preferences. We show that differences in patience are closely related to substantial subnational differences in educational achievement, leading to new perspectives on longstanding within-country disparities. We use social-media data – Facebook interests – to construct novel regional measures of patience within Italy and the United States. Patience is strongly positively associated with student achievement in both countries, accounting for two-thirds of the achievement variation across Italian regions and one-third across U.S. states. Results also hold for six other countries with more limited regional achievement data.
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For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen bronze 0 citations 0 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!more_vert add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
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For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Research , Article 2023 NetherlandsPublisher:Elsevier BV Funded by:EC | Corruption RootsEC| Corruption RootsLeib, Margarita; Köbis, Nils; Rilke, Rainer Michael; Hagens, Marloes; Irlenbusch, Bernd;Artificial Intelligence (AI) increasingly becomes an indispensable advisor. New ethical concerns arise if AI persuades people to behave dishonestly. In an experiment, we study how AI advice (generated by a Natural-Language-Processing algorithm) affects (dis)honesty, compare it to equivalent human advice, and test whether transparency about advice source matters. We find that dishonesty-promoting advice increases dishonesty, whereas honesty-promoting advice does not increase honesty. This is the case for both AI- and human advice. Algorithmic transparency, a commonly proposed policy to mitigate AI risks, does not affect behaviour. The findings mark the first steps towards managing AI advice responsibly. Comment: * shared first-authorship This is an updated version of the pre-print arXiv:2102.07536 with a new data set
MPG.PuRe arrow_drop_down arXiv.org e-Print ArchiveOther literature type . Preprint . 2023Data sources: arXiv.org e-Print Archiveadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
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For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen hybrid 0 citations 0 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!more_vert MPG.PuRe arrow_drop_down arXiv.org e-Print ArchiveOther literature type . Preprint . 2023Data sources: arXiv.org e-Print Archiveadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
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For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Research , Other literature type , Book , Article 2023 GermanyPublisher:Elsevier BV Authors: Lars Winkelmann; Wenying Yao;Lars Winkelmann; Wenying Yao;This article studies high-frequency econometric methods to test for a jump in the spread of bond yields. We propose a coherent inference procedure that detects a jump in the yield spread only if at least one of the two underlying bonds displays a jump. Ignoring this inherent connection by basing inference only on a univariate jump test applied to the spread tends to overestimate the number of jumps in yield spreads and puts the coherence of test results at risk. We formalize the statistical approach in the context of an intersection union test in multiple testing. We document the relevance of coherent tests and their practicability via simulations and real data examples.
Hertie School Resear... arrow_drop_down Hertie School Research RepositoryResearch . 2023License: CC BYData sources: Hertie School Research Repositoryadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
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For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen bronze 0 citations 0 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!more_vert Hertie School Resear... arrow_drop_down Hertie School Research RepositoryResearch . 2023License: CC BYData sources: Hertie School Research Repositoryadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
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For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Preprint , Research , Article , Conference object 2023Publisher:Elsevier BV Authors: Moghadam, Hamed Markazi; Puhani, Patrick A.; Tyrowicz, Joanna;Moghadam, Hamed Markazi; Puhani, Patrick A.; Tyrowicz, Joanna;handle: 10419/277582 , 10419/272230 , 10419/272666 , 10419/270735
To determine how wives' and husbands' retirement options affect their spouses' (and their own) labour supply decisions, we exploit (early) retirement cutoffs by way of a regression discontinuity design. Several German pension reforms since the early 1990s have gradually raised women's retirement age from 60 to 65, but also increased ages for several early retirement pathways affecting both sexes. We use German Socio-Economic Panel data for a sample of couples aged 50 to 69 whose retirement eligibility occurred (i) prior to the reforms, (ii) during the transition years, and (iii) after the major set of reforms. We find that, prior to the reforms, when several retirement options were available to both husbands and wives, both react almost symmetrically to their spouse reaching an early retirement age, that is both husband and wife decrease their labour supply by about 5 percentage points when the spouse reaches age 60). This speaks in favour of leisure complementarities. However, after the set of reforms, when retiring early was much more difficult, we find no more significant labour supply reaction to the spouse reaching a retirement age, whereas reaching one's own retirement age still triggers a significant reaction in labour supply. Our results may explain some of the diverse findings in the literature on asymmetric reactions between husbands and wives to their spouse reaching a retirement age: such reactions may in large parts depend on how flexibly workers are able to retire.
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For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen bronze 0 citations 0 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!more_vert add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
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For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Conference object , Article 2023Publisher:Elsevier BV Authors: Pagenhardt, Laura; Große Steffen, Christoph; Rieth, Malte;Pagenhardt, Laura; Große Steffen, Christoph; Rieth, Malte;doi: 10.2139/ssrn.4325153
handle: 10419/242330
We study the impact of fiscal rules on macroeconomic performance following natural disaster shocks, using dynamic panel models and quarterly data for 89 countries. We find that countries with fiscal rules perform significantly better in the aftermath of such shocks than countries without rules. GDP, private consumption and investment are persistently higher. The superior performance is associated with more expansionary fiscal policy, which hinges critically on larger fiscal space and escape clauses. We rationalize the findings in a quantitative model of sovereign default. The model replicates the empirical dynamics and shows that tight fiscal rules create fiscal space in good times that can be used in bad times for deficit-spending.
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For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen bronze 0 citations 0 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!more_vert add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
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