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The strongly varying benthic δ18O levels of the early and mid-Miocene (23 to 14 Myr ago) are primarily caused by a combination of changes in Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) volume and deep-ocean temperatures. These factors are coupled since AIS changes affect deep-ocean temperatures. It has recently been argued that this is due to changes in ice sheet area rather than volume because area changes affect the surface albedo. This finding would be important when the transient AIS grows relatively faster in extent than in thickness, which we test here. We analyse simulations of Miocene AIS variability carried out using the three-dimensional ice sheet model IMAU-ICE forced by warm (high CO2, no ice) and cold (low CO2, large East AIS) climate snapshots. These simulations comprise equilibrium and idealized quasi-orbital transient runs with strongly varying CO2 levels (280 to 840 ppm). Our simulations show a limited direct effect of East AIS changes on Miocene orbital-timescale benthic δ18O variability because of the slow build-up of volume. However, we find that relative to the equilibrium ice sheet size, the AIS area adapts significantly faster and more strongly than volume to the applied forcing variability. Consequently, during certain intervals the ice sheet is receding at the margins, while ice is still building up in the interior. That means the AIS does not adapt to a changing equilibrium size at the same rate or with the same sign everywhere. Our results indicate that the Miocene Antarctic Ice Sheet affects deep-ocean temperatures more than its volume suggests.

The last deglaciation (21 to 8 ka) of the Eurasian ice sheet (EIS) is thought to have been responsible for a sea level rise of about 20 m. While many studies have examined the timing and rate of the EIS retreat during this period, many questions remain about the key processes that triggered the EIS deglaciation 21 kyr ago. Due to its large marine-based parts in the Barents-Kara (BKIS) and British Isles sectors, the BKIS is often considered to be a potential analogue of the current West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS). Identifying the mechanisms that drove the EIS evolution might provide a better understanding of the processes at play in the West Antarctic destabilization. To investigate the relative impact of key drivers on the EIS destabilization, we used the threedimensional ice sheet model GRISLI (GRenoble Ice Shelf and Land Ice) (version 2.0) forced by climatic fields from five Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 4 (PMIP3, PMIP4) Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) simulations. In this study, we performed sensitivity experiments to test the response of the simulated Eurasian ice sheets to surface climate, oceanic temperatures (and thus basal melting under floating ice tongues), and sea level perturbations. Our results highlight that the EIS retreat simulated with the GRISLI model is primarily triggered by atmospheric warming. Increased atmospheric temperatures further amplify the sensitivity of the ice sheets to sub-shelf melting. These results contradict those of previous modelling studies mentioning the central role of basal melting on the deglaciation of the marine-based Barents-Kara ice sheet. However, we argue that the differences with previous works are mainly related to differences in the methodology followed to generate the initial LGM ice sheet. Due to the strong sensitivity of EIS to the atmospheric forcing highlighted with the GRISLI model and the limited extent of the confined ice shelves during the LGM, we conclude by questioning the analogy between EIS and the current WAIS. However, because of the expected rise in atmospheric temperatures, the risk of hydrofracturing is increasing and could ultimately put the WAIS in a configuration similar to the past Eurasian ice sheet. International audience

Abstract. This study examines the relationship between temperature levels and precipitation amounts as explanatory variables for the probability of death due to waterborne and airborne diseases in historical urban space. To date, the literature has not focused on the climatological epidemiology of 19th century Polish urban areas. We used individual mortality data from Poznań parish death registers between 1850 and 1900. Each deceased individual was assigned average monthly temperature values and precipitation amounts in the month of death, LAG1 (1-month-lagged) temperature and LAG1 rainfall, and place of residence. We studied the relationship between weather conditions and mortality using formalized statistical models reflecting the discrete nature of the response data (via multinomial logistic regression). Lagged monthly average temperature levels and lagged monthly average precipitation amounts were better predictors of airborne and waterborne disease mortality than the concurrent (non-lagged) monthly averages. The lagged effects of temperature and precipitation on waterborne and airborne diseases were significant (except for the smooth lagged average monthly temperature effect for airborne diseases). There was also significant spatial heterogeneity (differences among city quarters) in the prevalence of deaths due to waterborne and airborne diseases.

Abstract. Reconstruction and observational studies imply a potential linkage of moisture and precipitation change in arid central Asia and monsoonal East Asia, in which the evolution of moisture and precipitation in central Asia is out of phase with that in northern China but in phase with that in southern China. In order to ascertain whether there is a robust linkage between the changes in climate in Asian arid regions and monsoon regions and to elucidate the underlying dynamic mechanisms, we analyzed the Last Millennium Reanalysis dataset and outputs from the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME). The results indicate a significant decadal linkage between precipitation changes in central Asia's arid region and the Asian monsoon region during the last millennium, which is primarily driven by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). In spring, the positive IPO could enhance westerlies over the Mediterranean Sea and to its east, which could transport more water vapor and cause increased precipitation over central Asia. In summer, the positive IPO is accompanied by a weakened Asian monsoon and southward Asian subtropical westerly jet, which can lead to increased (decreased) summer precipitation over southern China (over northern China and South Asia). The IPO plays a dominant role in connecting the decadal variations in precipitation between arid central Asia and monsoonal Asia by modulating the precipitation of their respective major rainy seasons. Model results suggest that this decadal linkage stems entirely from the internal variability present in the CESM-LME control and all single-forcing simulations. Changes in external forcing factors do not alter this inherent linkage caused by the IPO. Moreover, based on analyses of the aridity index and soil moisture content, this relationship of precipitation variation also causes a similar decadal linkage of moisture changes in central Asia and monsoonal Asia. The differences in the multi-centennial-scale moisture and precipitation variations in the Asian arid region and the monsoon region between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age are also likely caused by IPO-like sea surface temperature anomalies.

The lack of continental ice sheets in Alaska during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 26–19 ka) has long been attributed to extensive aridity in the western Arctic. More recently, climate model outputs, a few isolated paleoclimate studies, and global paleoclimate synthesis products show mild summer temperature depressions in Alaska compared to much of the high northern latitudes. This suggests the importance of limited summer temperature depressions in controlling the relatively limited glacier growth during the LGM. To explore this further, we present a new statewide map of LGM alpine glacier equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs), LGM ΔELAs (LGM ELA anomalies relative to the Little Ice Age, LIA), and ΔELA-based estimates of temperature depressions across Alaska to assess paleoclimate conditions. We reconstructed paleoglacier surfaces in ArcGIS to calculate ELAs using an accumulation area ratio (AAR) of 0.58 and an area–altitude balance ratio (AABR) of 1.56. We calculated LGM ELAs (n= 480) in glaciated massifs in the state, excluding areas in southern Alaska that were covered by the Cordilleran Ice Sheet. The data show a trend of increasing ELAs from the southwest to the northeast during both the LGM and the LIA, indicating a consistent southern Bering Sea and northernmost Pacific Ocean precipitation source. Our LGM–LIA ΔELAs from the Alaska Range, supported with limited LGM–LIA ΔELAs from the Brooks Range and the Kigluaik Mountains, average to −355 ± 176 m. This value is much greater than the global LGM average of ca. −1000 m. Using a range of atmospheric lapse rates, LGM–LIA ΔELAs in Alaska translate to summer cooling of < 2–5 ∘C. Our results are consistent with a growing number of local climate proxy reconstructions and global data assimilation syntheses that indicate mild summer temperature across Beringia during the LGM. Limited LGM summer temperature depressions could be explained by the influence of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets on atmospheric circulation.

The International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 396 to the mid-Norwegian margin recovered > 1300 m of pristinely preserved, volcanic-ash-rich sediments deposited during the late Paleocene and early Eocene from close to the centre of the North Atlantic Igneous Province (NAIP). Remarkably, many of these cores contain glendonites, pseudomorphs after the purported cold-water mineral ikaite, from sediments dated to the late Paleocene and early Eocene. These time intervals span some of the hottest climates of the Cenozoic, including the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). Global deep-ocean temperatures are not thought to have dropped below 10 ∘C at any point during this time, making the occurrence of supposedly cold-water (near-freezing temperature) glendonite pseudomorphs seemingly paradoxical. This study presents a detailed sedimentological, geochemical, and microscopic study of the IODP Exp. 396 glendonites and presents an updated model for the ikaite-to-calcite transformation for these glendonites. Specifically, we show that early diagenesis of basaltic ashes of the NAIP appear to have chemically promoted ikaite growth in the sediments in this region. Together with existing knowledge of late Paleocene and early Eocene glendonites from Svalbard to the north and early Eocene glendonites from Denmark to the south, these new glendonite finds possibly imply episodic, short-duration, and likely localized cooling in the Nordic Seas region, which may have been directly or indirectly linked to the emplacement of the NAIP.

Paleo-proxy data indicate that a “Green Sahara” thrived in northern Africa during the early- to mid-Holocene (MH; 11 000 to 5000 years before present), characterized by more vegetation cover and reduced dust emissions. Utilizing a state-of-the-art atmospheric chemical transport model, TM5-MP, we assessed the changes in biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions, dust emissions and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations in northern Africa during this period relative to the pre-industrial (PI) period. Our simulations show that dust emissions reduced from 280.6 Tg a−1 in the PI to 26.8 Tg a−1 in the MH, agreeing with indications from eight marine sediment records in the Atlantic Ocean. The northward expansion in northern Africa resulted in an increase in annual emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes during the MH, around 4.3 and 3.5 times higher than that in the PI period, respectively, causing a 1.9-times increase in the SOA surface concentration. Concurrently, enhanced BVOC emissions consumed more hydroxyl radical (OH), resulting in less sulfate formation. This effect counteracted the enhanced SOA surface concentration, altogether leading to a 17 % increase in the cloud condensation nuclei at 0.2 % super saturation over northern Africa. Our simulations provide consistent emission datasets of BVOCs, dust and the SOA formation aligned with the northward shift of vegetation during the “Green Sahara” period, which could serve as a benchmark for MH aerosol input in future Earth system model simulation experiments. Peer reviewed