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Abstract. Changes to the winter-to-spring switch-time of the upper air flow regime at the 850 and 500 hPa levels over the north-eastern Baltic Sea are analyzed based on a data set extending from 1955 to 2007. The long-term variation of the air flow in early spring (March) exhibits multiple regime shifts. The shifts are extracted by means of a vector analysis of the monthly mean air flow and using statistical shift detection technology. In the middle of the 1960s the average air flow turned from NW (WNW) to W (WSW) at the 500 (850) hPa level. The original regime was restored in the mid-1990s. The regime shifts in the average air flow in March can be interpreted as changes in the transition time from winter to summer circulation type.

Abstract. The threat of future global warming has generated a major interest in quantifying past climate variability on centennial and millennial time-scales. However, palaeoclimatological records are often noisy and arguments about past variability are only possible if they are based on reproducible features in several reliably dated datasets. Here we focus on the last 9000 years, explore the results of 35 Holocene pollen-based July mean and annual mean temperature reconstructions from Northern Europe by stacking them to create summary curves, and compare them with a high-resolution, summary chironomid-based temperature record and other independent palaeoclimate records. The stacked records show that the "Holocene Thermal Maximum" in the region dates to 8000 to 4800 cal yr BP and that the "8.2 event" and the "Little Ice Age" at 500–100 cal yr BP are the clearest cold episodes during the Holocene. In addition, a more detailed analysis of the last 5000 years pinpoints centennial-scale climate variability with cold anomalies at 3800–3000 and 500–100 cal yr BP, a long, warmer period around 2000 cal yr BP, and a marked warming since the mid 19th century. The colder (warmer) anomalies are associated with increased (decreased) humidity over the Northern European mainland, consistent with the modern high correlation between cold (warm) and humid (dry) modes of summer weather in the region. A comparison with the key proxy records reflecting the main forcing factors does not support the hypothesis that solar variability is the cause of the late-Holocene centennial-scale temperature changes. We suggest that the reconstructed anomalies are typical of Northern Europe and their occurrence may be related to the oceanic and atmospheric circulation variability in the North Atlantic–North-European region.

Abstract. We compare Holocene tree cover changes in Europe derived from a transient Earth system model simulation (Max Planck Institute Earth System Model – MPI-ESM1.2, including the land surface and dynamic vegetation model JSBACH) with high-spatial-resolution time slice simulations performed in the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund–Potsdam–Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) and pollen-based quantitative reconstructions of tree cover based on the REVEALS (Regional Estimates of Vegetation Abundance from Large Sites) model. The dynamic vegetation models and REVEALS agree with respect to the general temporal trends in tree cover for most parts of Europe, with a large tree cover during the mid-Holocene and a substantially smaller tree cover closer to the present time. However, the decrease in tree cover in REVEALS starts much earlier than in the models, indicating much earlier anthropogenic deforestation than the prescribed land use in the models. While LPJ-GUESS generally overestimates tree cover compared to the reconstructions, MPI-ESM indicates lower percentages of tree cover than REVEALS, particularly in central Europe and the British Isles. A comparison of the simulated climate with chironomid-based climate reconstructions reveals that model–data mismatches in tree cover are in most cases not driven by biases in the climate. Instead, sensitivity experiments indicate that the model results strongly depend on the tuning of the models regarding natural disturbance regimes (e.g. fire and wind throw). The frequency and strength of disturbances are – like most of the parameters in the vegetation models – static and calibrated to modern conditions. However, these parameter values may not be valid for past climate and vegetation states totally different from today's. In particular, the mid-Holocene natural forests were probably more stable and less sensitive to disturbances than present-day forests that are heavily altered by human interventions. Our analysis highlights the fact that such model settings are inappropriate for paleo-simulations and complicate model–data comparisons with additional challenges. Moreover, our study suggests that land use is the main driver of forest decline in Europe during the mid-Holocene and late Holocene.

The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to review the pros and cons of the scenarios of past anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) developed during the last ten years, (2) to discuss issues related to pollen-based reconstruction of the past land-cover and introduce a new method, REVEALS (Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites), to infer long-term records of past land-cover from pollen data, (3) to present a new project (LANDCLIM: LAND cover – CLIMate interactions in NW Europe during the Holocene) currently underway, and show preliminary results of REVEALS reconstructions of the regional land-cover in the Czech Republic for five selected time windows of the Holocene, and (4) to discuss the implications and future directions in climate and vegetation/land-cover modeling, and in the assessment of the effects of human-induced changes in land-cover on the regional climate through altered feedbacks. The existing ALCC scenarios show large discrepancies between them, and few cover time periods older than AD 800. When these scenarios are used to assess the impact of human land-use on climate, contrasting results are obtained. It emphasizes the need for methods such as the REVEALS model-based land-cover reconstructions. They might help to fine-tune descriptions of past land-cover and lead to a better understanding of how long-term changes in ALCC might have influenced climate. The REVEALS model is demonstrated to provide better estimates of the regional vegetation/landcover changes than the traditional use of pollen percentages. This will achieve a robust assessment of land cover at regional- to continental-spatial scale throughout the Holocene. We present maps of REVEALS estimates for the percentage cover of 10 plant functional types (PFTs) at 200 BP and 6000 BP, and of the two open-land PFTs “grassland” and “agricultural land” at five time-windows from 6000 BP to recent time. The LANDCLIM results are expected to provide crucial data to reassess ALCC estimates for a better understanding of the land suface-atmosphere interactions. NordForsk LANDCLIM VR LANDCLIM MERGE