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Abstract. Understanding the sequence of events occuring during the last major glacial to interglacial transition (21 ka BP to 9 ka BP) is a challenging task that has the potential to unveil the mechanisms behind large scale climate changes. Though many studies have focused on the understanding of the complex sequence of rapid climatic change that accompanied or interrupted the deglaciation, few have analysed it in a more theoretical framework with simple forcings. In the following, we address when and where the first significant temperature anomalies appeared when using slow varying forcing of the last deglaciation. We used here coupled transient simulations of the last deglaciation, including ocean, atmosphere and vegetation components to analyse the spatial timing of the deglaciation. To keep the analysis in a simple framework, we did not include freshwater forcings that potentially cause rapid climate shifts during that time period. We aimed to disentangle the direct and subsequent response of the climate system to slow forcing and moreover, the location where those changes are more clearly expressed. In a data – modelling comparison perspective, this could help understand the physically plausible phasing between known forcings and recorded climatic changes. Our analysis of climate variability could also help to distinguish deglacial warming signals from internal climate variability. We thus are able to better pinpoint the onset of local deglaciation, as defined by the first significant local warming and further show that there is a large regional variability associated with it, even with the set of slow forcings used here. In our model, the first significant hemispheric warming occurred simultaneously in the North and in the South and is a direct response to the obliquity forcing.

Abstract. Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SST) influence rainfall variability on multidecadal and interdecadal timescales in concert with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Rainfall variations in locations such as Australia and North America are therefore linked to phase changes in the PDO. Furthermore, studies have suggested teleconnections exist between the western Indian Ocean and Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV), similar to those observed on interannual timescales related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, as instrumental records of rainfall are too short and sparse to confidently assess multidecadal climatic teleconnections, here we present four coral climate archives from Madagascar spanning up to the past 300 yr (1708–2008) to assess such decadal variability. Using spectral luminescence scanning to reconstruct past changes in river runoff, we identify significant multidecadal and interdecadal frequencies in the coral records, which before 1900 are coherent with Asian-based PDO reconstructions. This multidecadal relationship with the Asian-based PDO reconstructions points to an unidentified teleconnection mechanism that affects Madagascar rainfall/runoff, most likely triggered by multidecadal changes in North Pacific SST, influencing the Asian Monsoon circulation. In the 20th century we decouple human deforestation effects from rainfall-induced soil erosion by pairing luminescence with coral geochemistry. Positive PDO phases are associated with increased Indian Ocean temperatures and runoff/rainfall in eastern Madagascar, while precipitation in southern Africa and eastern Australia declines. Consequently, the negative PDO phase that started in 1998 may contribute to reduced rainfall over eastern Madagascar and increased precipitation in southern Africa and eastern Australia. We conclude that multidecadal rainfall variability in Madagascar and the western Indian Ocean needs to be taken into account when considering water resource management under a future warming climate.

Aggradation and fluvial incision controlled by downstream base-level changes at timescales of 10 to 500 kyr is incorporated in classic sequence stratigraphic models. However, upstream climate control on sediment supply and discharge variability causes fluvial incision and aggradation as well. Orbital forcing often regulates climate change at 10 to 500 kyr timescales while tectonic processes such as flexural (un)loading exert a dominant control at timescales longer than 500 kyr. It remains challenging to attribute fluvial incision and aggradation to upstream or downstream processes or disentangle allogenic from autogenic forcing, because time control is mostly limited in fluvial successions. The Palaeocene outcrops of the fluvial Lebo Shale Member in north-eastern Montana (Williston Basin, USA) constitute an exception. This study uses a distinctive tephra layer and two geomagnetic polarity reversals to create a 15 km long chronostratigraphic framework based on the correlation of twelve sections. Three aggradation–incision sequences are identified with durations of approximately 400 kyr, suggesting a relation with long-eccentricity. This age control further reveals that incision occurred during the approach of – or during – a 405 kyr long-eccentricity minimum. A long-term relaxation of the hydrological cycle related to such an orbital phasing potentially exerts an upstream climate control on river incision. Upstream, an expanding vegetation cover is expected because of an increasingly constant moisture supply to source areas. Entrapping by vegetation led to a significantly reduced sediment supply relative to discharge, especially at times of low evapotranspiration. Hence, high discharges resulted in incision. This study assesses the long-eccentricity regulated climate control on fluvial aggradation and incision in a new aggradation–incision sequence model.

The transition from hunter-gatherer-fisher groups to agrarian societies is arguably the most significant change in human prehistory. In the European plain there is evidence for fully developed agrarian societies by 7,500 cal. yr BP, yet a well-established agrarian society does not appear in the north until 6,000 cal. yr BP for unknown reasons. Here we show a sudden increase in summer temperature at 6,000 cal. yr BP in northern Europe using a well-dated, high resolution record of sea surface temperature (SST) from the Baltic Sea. This temperature rise resulted in hypoxic conditions across the entire Baltic sea as revealed by multiple sedimentary records and supported by marine ecosystem modeling. Comparison with summed probability distributions of radiocarbon dates from archaeological sites indicate that this temperature rise coincided with both the introduction of farming, and a dramatic population increase. The evidence supports the hypothesis that the boundary of farming rapidly extended north at 6,000 cal. yr BP because terrestrial conditions in a previously marginal region improved. Scientific Reports, 7 (1) ISSN:2045-2322

The present work studies the large coherent structures in large eddy simulations of windfarms using proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) method. In order to evaluate the effect of wind turbines on coherent structures, we consider three cases. One is a reference flow of a neutral atmospheric boundary layer and the other two are periodic and developing aligned windfarms. The number of wind turbines is large, 16 × 12 for periodic windfarm, and 12 × 12 for developing windfarm. The simulations are run for a long time in order to generate a sufficient database for POD analysis. In all cases, elongated streamwise counter rotating roll structures, covering 1 or 2 turbines in spanwise direction, are identified as the dominant POD mode. Another pattern, varying in streamwise direction, also appears in all the three cases.

Abstract Benthic oxygen isotope records of deep marine sedimentary archives have yielded a wealth of information regarding ice sheet dynamics and climate change during the Pleistocene. However, since they often lack independent age control, these records are generally bound by a fixed phase relationship between orbital forcing and the climate response, e.g. ice volume changes. We present the first long (∼1.2 Ma) benthic oxygen isotope record from the eastern Mediterranean, based on ODP Sites 967 and 968, which clearly reflects the behavior of global climate on a glacial–interglacial scale throughout the late Pleistocene time period. The age model for our record is based on tuning the elemental ratio of titanium versus aluminum (Ti/Al) against insolation. The Ti/Al record is dominated by the precession-related changes in northern African climate, i.e. monsoonal forcing, and hence largely independent of glacial–interglacial variability. We found the largest offset between our chronology and that of the widely applied, open ocean stacked record LR04 (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005) for T VII (∼624 ka), which occurred ∼9 kyr earlier according to our estimates, though in agreement with the AICC2012 δD ice chronology of EPICA Dome C (Bazin et al., 2013). Spectral cross-correlation analysis between our benthic δ 18 O record and 65°N summer insolation reveals significant amounts of power in the obliquity and precession range, with an average lag of 5.5 ± 0.8 kyr for obliquity, and 6.0 ± 1.0 kyr for precession. In addition, our results show that the obliquity-related time lag was smaller (3.0 ± 3.3 kyr) prior to ∼900 ka than after (5.7 ± 1.1 kyr), suggesting that on average the glacial response time to obliquity forcing increased during the mid-Pleistocene transition, much later than assumed by Lisiecki and Raymo (2005). Finally, we found that almost all glacial terminations have a consistent phase relationship of ∼45 ± 45° with respect to the precession and obliquity-driven increases in 65°N summer insolation, consistent with the general consensus that both obliquity and precession are important for deglaciation during the Late Pleistocene. Exceptions are glacial terminations T IIIb , T 36 and potentially T 32 (and T VII T 24 and T 34 ), which show this consistent phase relationship only with precession (only with obliquity). Our findings point towards an early (>1200 ka) onset of the Mid Pleistocene Transition. Vice versa, the timing of T VII , which can only be explained as a response to obliquity forcing, indicates that the transition lasted until at least after MIS 15.

The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 ∘C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 ∘C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 ∘C over land and 2.8 ∘C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60∘ N and 60∘ S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8 ∘C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.

The AMANDA-II data collected during the period 2000-2003 have been analysed in a search for a diffuse flux of high-energy extra-terrestrial muon neutrinos from the sum of all sources in the Universe. With no excess events seen, an upper limit of Eν2 ×s dNν/dEν < 7.4 × 10-8 GeV cm-2 s-1 sr-1 was obtained. The sensitivity of the diffuse analysis of IceCube 9 string for 137 days of data is calculated to be Eν2 × dNν/dEν < 1.3 × 10-7 GeV cm-2 s-1 sr-1. No excess events are observed, which confirms the AMANDA-II upper limit.

Recent advances in paleoclimatology and the growing digital availability of large historical datasets on human activity have created new opportunities to investigate long‐term interactions between climate and society. However, noncritical use of historical datasets can create pitfalls, resulting in misleading findings that may become entrenched as accepted knowledge. We demonstrate pitfalls in the content, use and interpretation of historical datasets in research into climate and society interaction through a systematic review of recent studies on the link between climate and (a) conflict incidence, (b) plague outbreaks and (c) agricultural productivity changes. We propose three sets of interventions to overcome these pitfalls, which involve a more critical and multidisciplinary collection and construction of historical datasets, increased specificity and transparency about uncertainty or biases, and replacing inductive with deductive approaches to causality. This will improve the validity and robustness of interpretations on the long‐term relationship between climate and society. This article is categorized under: Climate, History, Society, Culture > Disciplinary Perspectives Recent literature investigating long‐term interactions between climate and society increasingly utilizes historical big data. Too often this is done without applying historical criticism, which may lead to misguided narratives. We propose a set of interventions to avoid this and optimize the use of historical datasets.

Methane (CH₄) variations on orbital timescales are often associated with variations in wetland coverage, most notably in the summer monsoon areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Here we test this assumption by simulating orbitally forced variations in global wetland emissions, using a simple wetland distribution and CH₄ emissions model that has been run on the output of a climate model (CLIMBER-2) containing atmosphere, ocean and vegetation components. The transient climate modeling simulation extends over the last 650 000 yr and includes variations in land-ice distribution and greenhouse gases. Tropical temperature and global vegetation are found to be the dominant controls for global CH₄ emissions and therefore atmospheric concentrations. The relative importance of wetland coverage, vegetation coverage, and emission temperatures depends on the specific climatic zone (boreal, tropics and Indian/Asian monsoon area) and timescale (precession, obliquity and glacial-interglacial timescales). Despite the low spatial resolution of the climate model and crude parameterizations for methane production and release, simulated variations in CH₄ emissions agree well with those in measured concentrations, both in their time series and spectra. The simulated lags between emissions and orbital forcing also show close agreement with those found in measured data, both on the precession and obliquity timescale. We find causal links between atmospheric CH₄ concentrations and tropical temperatures and global vegetation, but only covariance between monsoon precipitation and CH₄ concentrations. The primary importance of the first two factors explains the lags found in the CH₄ record from ice cores. Simulation of the dynamical vegetation response to climate variation on orbital timescales would be needed to reduce the uncertainty in these preliminary attributions.