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The Piacenzian stage (3.6–2.6 Ma) of the Pliocene is the most recent period where Earth experienced sustained intervals of global warmth analogous to predicted near-future climates. Despite considerable efforts to characterize and understand the climate dynamics of the Piacenzian, the deep ocean and its response to this warming remain poorly understood. Here we present new mid-Piacenzian Mg/Ca and Δ47 (“clumped isotope”) temperatures from the deep Pacific and North Atlantic oceans. These records cover the transition from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) M2 – considered the most pronounced “glacial” stage of the Pliocene prior to the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation – to the warm KM5 interglacial. We find that a large (> 4 ∘C) temperature gradient existed between these two basins throughout that interval, with the deep North Atlantic considerably warmer and likely saltier than at present. We interpret our results to indicate that the deep Pacific and North Atlantic oceans were bathed by water masses with very different physical properties during the mid-Piacenzian, and that only a limited deep oceanic exchange occurred between the two basins. Our results point to a fundamentally different mode of ocean circulation or mixing compared to the present, where heat and salt are distributed from the North Atlantic into the Pacific. The amplitude of cooling observed at both sites during MIS M2 suggests that changes in benthic δ18O associated with this cold stage were mostly driven by temperature change in the deep ocean rather than by ice volume.

Abstract. Climatic changes in southern Europe during the Holocene are characterized by a strong spatial and temporal heterogeneity whose patterns are still poorly understood, notably the presence or not of a Holocene thermal maximum (HTM; 10 000–6000 cal BP). The climatic patterns also differ according to the proxies used (e.g. pollen, chironomid) and the latitude of the record. Here, a multi-proxy approach combining pollen and lipid biomarkers (branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, brGDGTs) is applied to the Canroute sedimentological sequence (Massif Central, France) to reconstruct the climatic variation over the last 15 000 years in southern Europe. This area is poorly documented in terms of vegetation and climate change. To provide reliable climate reconstructions, we have (1) performed a multi-method approach applied to pollen (modern analogue technique, MAT; weighted averaging partial least squares regression, WA-PLS; boosted regression trees, BRT; and random forest, RF) and molecular biomarkers brGDGTs (five calibrations) and (2) investigated the role of modern databases and calibrations in climate reconstructions. Three different databases were tested for pollen data: one global database based on a Eurasian pollen database and two regional databases corresponding to Mediterranean–Temperate Europe and Temperate Europe–Scandinavian databases respectively. Five global calibrations were tested for lipid biomarkers including four for soil and one for peat. Results show that the use of different modern databases highlights the importance of considering environmental and ecological constraints when using transfer functions on pollen sequences. Pollen- and brGDGT-inferred climate trends are consistent, notably for the Late Glacial and the Early and Late Holocene. However, the reconstructions notably differ concerning the presence of a Holocene thermal maximum with the MAT pollen-based method, but no difference is apparent with the BRT pollen method nor brGDGT. The temperature reconstructions estimated from the two independent pollen and lipid proxies are then compared to regional climate signals (chironomids, pollen, molecular biomarkers) to better understand global regional climatic patterns in southern Europe. Altogether, our results from the Canroute sequence and those already available in southern Europe reveal that for the Late Glacial and Early Holocene, the regional climate trends are consistent between sites and proxies, supporting the reliability of their reconstructions despite some discrepancies. During the Holocene, the temperature signal of Canroute does not indicate the clear presence of a pronounced HTM, but rather stable temperatures. International audience

Abstract. The Maritime Continent (MC) forms the western boundary of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and relatively small changes in this region can impact the climate locally and remotely. In the mid-Piacenzian warm period of the Pliocene (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) atmospheric CO2 concentrations were ∼ 400 ppm, and the subaerial Sunda and Sahul shelves made the land–sea distribution of the MC different to today. Topographic changes and elevated levels of CO2, combined with other forcings, are therefore expected to have driven a substantial climate signal in the MC region at this time. By using the results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), we study the mean climatic features of the MC in the mPWP and changes in Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) with respect to the preindustrial. Results show a warmer and wetter mPWP climate of the MC and lower sea surface salinity in the surrounding ocean compared with the preindustrial. Furthermore, we quantify the volume transfer through the ITF; although the ITF may be expected to be hindered by the subaerial shelves, 10 out of 15 models show an increased volume transport compared with the preindustrial. In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models that are present in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean (MCM), which is based on cluster analysis of the individual models. We study the effect that the choice of MCM versus the more traditional analysis of multi-model mean (MMM) and individual models has on the discrepancy between model results and data. We find that models, which reproduce modern MC climate well, are not always good at simulating the mPWP climate anomaly of the MC. By comparing with individual models, the MMM and MCM reproduce the preindustrial sea surface temperature (SST) of the reanalysis better than most individual models and produce less discrepancy with reconstructed sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) than most individual models in the MC. In addition, the clusters reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the MMM, so that the MCM provides us with a new way to explore the results from model ensembles that include similar models. International audience

Abstract. Changes in tropical precipitation over the past millennia have usually been associated with latitudinal displacements of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Recent studies provide new evidence that contraction and expansion of the tropical rain belt may also have contributed to ITCZ variability on centennial timescales. Over tropical South America few records point to a similar interpretation, which prevents a clear diagnosis of ITCZ changes in the region. In order to improve our understanding of equatorial rain belt variability, our study presents a reconstruction of precipitation for the last 3200 years from the northeastern Brazil (NEB) region, an area solely influenced by ITCZ precipitation. We analyze oxygen isotopes in speleothems that serve as a faithful proxy for the past location of the southern margin of the ITCZ. Our results, in comparison with other ITCZ proxies, indicate that the range of seasonal migration, contraction, and expansion of the ITCZ was not symmetrical around the Equator on secular and multidecadal timescales. A new NEB ITCZ pattern emerges based on the comparison between two distinct proxies that characterize the ITCZ behavior during the last 2500 years, with an ITCZ zonal pattern between NEB and the eastern Amazon. In NEB, the period related to the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA – 950 to 1250 CE) was characterized by an abrupt transition from wet to dry conditions. These drier conditions persisted until the onset of the period corresponding to the Little Ice Age (LIA) in 1560 CE, representing the longest dry period over the last 3200 years in NEB. The ITCZ was apparently forced by teleconnections between Atlantic and Pacific that controlled the position, intensity, and extent of the Walker cell over South America, changing the zonal ITCZ characteristics, while sea surface temperature changes in both the Pacific and Atlantic stretched or weakened the ITCZ-related rainfall meridionally over NEB. Wetter conditions started around 1500 CE in NEB. During the last 500 years, our speleothems document the occurrence of some of the strongest drought events over the last centuries, which drastically affected population and environment of NEB during the Portuguese colonial period. The historical droughts were able to affect the karst system and led to significant impacts over the entire NEB region.

Driven primarily by variations in the earth's axis wobble, tilt, and orbit eccentricity, our planet experienced massive glacial/interglacial reorganizations of climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations during the Pleistocene (2.58 million years ago (Ma)–11.7 thousand years ago (ka)). Even after decades of research, the underlying climate response mechanisms to these astronomical forcings have not been fully understood. To further quantify the sensitivity of the earth system to orbital-scale forcings, we conducted an unprecedented quasi-continuous coupled general climate model simulation with the Community Earth System Model version 1.2 (CESM1.2, ∼3.75∘ horizontal resolution), which covers the climatic history of the past 3 million years (3 Myr). In addition to the astronomical insolation changes, CESM1.2 is forced by estimates of CO2 and ice-sheet topography which were obtained from a simulation previously conducted with the CLIMBER-2 earth system model of intermediate complexity. Our 3 Ma simulation consists of 42 transient interglacial/glacial simulation chunks, which were partly run in parallel to save computing time. The chunks were subsequently merged, accounting for spin-up and overlap effects to yield a quasi-continuous trajectory. The computer model data were compared against a plethora of paleo-proxy data and large-scale climate reconstructions. For the period from the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT, ∼1 Ma) to the late Pleistocene we find good agreement between simulated and reconstructed temperatures in terms of phase and amplitude (−5.7 ∘C temperature difference between Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene). For the earlier part (3–1 Ma), differences in orbital-scale variability occur between model simulation and the reconstructions, indicating potential biases in the applied CO2 forcing. Our model-proxy data comparison also extends to the westerlies, which show unexpectedly large variance on precessional timescales, and hydroclimate variables in major monsoon regions. Eccentricity-modulated precessional variability is also responsible for the simulated changes in the amplitude and flavors of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We further identify two major modes of planetary energy transport, which played a crucial role in Pleistocene climate variability: the first obliquity and CO2-driven mode is linked to changes in the Equator-to-pole temperature gradient; the second mode regulates the interhemispheric heat imbalance in unison with the eccentricity-modulated precession cycle. During the MPT, a pronounced qualitative shift occurs in the second mode of planetary energy transport: the post-MPT eccentricity-paced variability synchronizes with the CO2 forced signal. This synchronized feature is coherent with changes in global atmospheric and ocean circulations, which might contribute to an intensification of glacial cycle feedbacks and amplitudes. Comparison of this paleo-simulation with greenhouse warming simulations reveals that for an RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenario, the projected global mean surface temperature changes over the next 7 decades would be comparable to the late Pleistocene glacial-interglacial range; but the anthropogenic warming rate will exceed any previous ones by a factor of ∼100.

Stable hydrogen isotopic compositions of long-chain alkenones with 37 carbon atoms (δ2HC37) have been shown to reflect seawater salinity in culture and environmental studies, and this potential sea surface salinity proxy has been applied to several downcore records from different regions. However, previous studies were based solely on a single sediment core and often suggested unlikely large changes in salinity based on existing proxy calibrations. Here we present a new δ2HC37 record, in combination with oxygen isotopes of benthic foraminifera from the same samples, from a sediment core from the Chilean Margin (ODP Site 1235). The observed negative shift in δ2HC37 of 20 ‰ during the last deglaciation was identical to that of a previously published δ2HC37 record from the nearby, but deeper, ODP Site 1234, suggesting a regionally consistent shift in δ2HC37. This change translates into a negative hydrogen isotope shift in the surface seawater of ca. 14 ‰, similar to glacial–interglacial reconstructions based on other δ2HC37 records. The reconstructed bottom seawater oxygen isotope change based on benthic foraminifera during the last deglaciation is approximately −0.8 ‰, in line with previous studies. When translated into hydrogen isotopes of bottom seawater using the modern open-ocean water line, this would suggest a negative change of ca. 5 ‰, smaller than the reconstructed surface seawater shift based on alkenones. The larger change in surface water isotopes suggests that it experienced more freshening during the Holocene than bottom waters, either due to increased freshwater input, reduced evaporation, or a combination of the two.

Abstract. Over the past 3 decades, discordant trends in sea ice extent have been observed between the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Arctic sea ice extent has been characterised by a rapid decline, whereas Antarctic sea ice extent, while highly variable interannually, has tended to increase. Climate models have so far failed to capture these trends. Coupled with the limited pre-1970 sea ice dataset, this poses a significant challenge to quantifying the mechanisms responsible for driving such trends. However, historical records from early Antarctic expeditions contain a wealth of information regarding the nature and concentration of sea ice. Such records have been underutilised, and their analysis may enhance our understanding of recent Antarctic sea ice variability. For the purpose of this study, nine records from eight Antarctic expeditions have been examined. Summer sea ice positions recorded during 1820–1843 have been compared to satellite observations from 1987–2017, as well as historical data for the period 1897–1917. Through analysis of these three time series, estimates for the northern limits of summer sea ice in the Weddell Sea during the early 19th century have been produced. The key findings of this study indicate a 19th century average core summer northernmost sea ice latitude in much of the Weddell Sea that was further north than during the modern era, with 19th century February having significantly more sea ice by all measures. However, late summer sea ice was most extensive in the early years of the 20th century.