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AbstractIn the last decade, future thinking has rapidly gained importance as a topic of historical study. This article provides an overview of the existing historiographies of future thinking as well as the actions and practices that follow such thoughts. We trace the pedigree of histories of the future back to the German historian of ideas Reinhart Koselleck and show how his conceptual framework has been adopted and adapted by later scholars. We highlight the sources and methods that are typically used. A particularly fruitful approach that emerges from our meta study revolves around the concept of pluritemporality – the coexistence of different layers of time. The article also seeks to uncover some weaknesses and biases that are still present in the field. The most urgent issue being probably the lack of consensus on a conceptual apparatus; other blind spots concern the relationship between future thinking and its linguistic expression in historical sources, the question of whose future thinking we are talking about, how future thinking relates to human action in the past, and how short‐term futures interact with their long‐term futures equivalents. Overall, however, the aim of this survey is to emphasise the potential of this burgeoning field for future historical research. Much is to be gained from new theories of historical time which are themselves the consequence of ideas about climate change and the dangers of the Anthropocene, human extinction and trans‐ and post‐humanism and about artificial intelligence and the digital world.

Abstract: In the flourishing entertainment culture of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries women were omnipresent on stage, showcasing their physical prowess as dancers, acrobats, trapeze artists, and animal tamers. However, the extent of their involvement behind the scenes remains relatively unknown. This paper explores the often-overlooked contributions of women in the management and workforce of the nineteenth-century funfair business in Western Europe, shedding light on their pivotal role in shaping and driving the success of these captivating spectacles. Within the funfair context, women were engaged at various levels, occupying positions as roundabout proprietors, stallholders, and managers of traveling shows, including theaters, menageries, wax museums, and puppet booths. Their involvement spanned across multiple facets of the funfair, encompassing both the administrative and operational aspects of these diverse attractions. Through a comprehensive analysis of historical sources and records, this study aims to unveil the significant influence wielded by women in an era where their participation in the public domains was limited.

Archaeological investigations of the Idiofa region in the Kwilu Province of the Democratic Republic of Congo have yielded the earliest evidence for iron production, combined with ceramics and lithic artefacts, south of the Congo rainforest during the second century BC. Palaeoecological data show that the producers of this industry did not settle in open grasslands but in a habitat where the forests had started to undergo climate-induced degradation before their arrival. The Early Iron Age at Idiofa continues until the third century AD and is followed by a long hiatus that was not driven by climate change until the fifteenth century. Later Iron Age (LIA) pottery in the area, which dates to c. 1487–1648, is markedly distinct from that of the EIA in vessel forms, size, recipe and decoration. EIA pottery from Idiofa resembles most closely slightly younger Kay Ladio pottery (c. cal. AD 30–475) from the Lower Congo region further west, which is also associated with the first metallurgy there. Idiofa’s LIA pottery is indicative of a fifteenth- through seventeenth-century exchange network between the Kamtsha and Kasai Rivers. These shifting dynamics in pottery production are reflected in the region’s linguistic stratigraphy, which may contribute to the interdisciplinary reconstruction of the history of ancestral Bantu speakers south of the rainforest. Les recherches archéologiques dans la région d’Idiofa, dans la province du Kwilu, en République Démocratique du Congo, ont mené à la découverte des premières traces de la production du fer au sud de la forêt du bassin du Congo. Elles remontent au cours du deuxième siècle avant J.-C et sont associées à la céramique et aussi aux vestiges lithiques. Les données paléoécologiques montrent que les producteurs de cette industrie ne se sont pas installés dans des savanes ouvertes, mais dans un habitat dont les forêts avaient commencé à se dégrader avant leur arrivée, suite aux changements climatiques. L’Âge du Fer ancien à Idiofa continue jusqu’au troisième siècle de notre ère. Après cela un long hiatus non lié au changement climatique perdure jusqu’au quinzième siècle. La poterie de l’Âge du Fer récent (c. 1487–1648 ap. J.-C.) se distingue nettement de celle de l'Âge du Fer ancien par la forme, la taille, la composition et la décoration. La poterie de l’Âge du Fer ancien d'Idiofa ressemble davantage à la poterie Kay Ladio (c. 30–475 ap. J.-C.) de la région du Bas-Congo, située plus à l’ouest et de date un peu plus récente. Elle est également associée à la métallurgie la plus ancienne de cette région. La poterie d’Idiofa de l’Âge du Fer récent est révélatrice d’un réseau d’échange qui s’étendaient entre les rivières Kamtsha et Kasai du quinzième au dix-septième siècles de notre ère. Ces dynamiques en mutation dans la production de la poterie se reflètent dans la stratigraphie linguistique de la région, ce qui est pertinent pour la reconstruction interdisciplinaire de l’histoire des communautés bantouphones ancestrales au sud de la forêt tropicale.

Abstract China is experiencing population ageing caused by a rapidly declining fertility rate and increased life expectancy. This demographic transition poses economic challenges, yet the intensity of these challenges depends on a number of factors, with the move of people from rural to urban areas being of central importance. To gain a clearer understanding of how urbanisation interacts with population ageing, we investigate changes in the Chinese labour force in both rural and urban areas. Our findings suggest a modest shrinking of the overall labour force up until 2035. However, until 2035, the labour force is projected to contract only in rural areas, while the urban labour force will continue to grow. As urban employment is more productive than rural employment, the combined effect of demographic change and urbanisation on growth will remain moderately positive (0.4 percent per year). Beyond 2035, fertility rate decline will begin to affect the working-age population in both rural and urban areas, especially since the urbanisation process is expected to level off by then. In such circumstances, China's shrinking population will shave off 1.4 percent from GDP growth annually. These results, however, do not take into account the impact of population aging on labour productivity. China's fast move towards robotisation and artificial intelligence might help mitigate any negative impacts by increasing productivity, but there is no sign yet that this is the case.

Este trabajo tiene por objetivo estudiar el viaje que realizó el franciscano español Buenaventura Ibáñez (1607-‍1691) desde China a Europa para negociar concesiones para las misiones en China y reclutar nuevos misioneros. Habiendo salido en 1661 de Jinan, al norte de China, el fraile pasó por Macao, Malasia, la India, el Golfo Pérsico y Oriente Próximo. Durante su viaje en Europa, el misionero visitó Roma y Madrid donde desarrolló una intensa labor negociadora que finalizó con su regreso con nuevos refuerzos a la misión China en 1669. A través de una selección de cartas, memoriales, súplicas y relaciones de este misionero, así como de la documentación conservada de aquellos que trataron con él, este trabajo pretende reconstruir su rol como procurador de la misión China. El estudio de sus acciones sirve para entender la puesta en marcha del proyecto misional franciscano en los siglos XVII y XVIII, así como para analizar las redes de poder en Asia Oriental entre las que se movió este fraile.

This is an interactive live modelling system which can automatically convert simple tab separated triples or JSON-LD into graphical models using the mermaid library. General updates and improvements have been carried out, with the addition of improved options for formatting and the conversion of JSON-LD, specifically in relation to those created by the Linked.Art project. The compression of data within bookmark URLs has been updated and the option for the direct creation of png version of models has been improved. Instructions: Several worked examples, including some simple instructions relating to how this system works are included in the interactive web site: dynamic modelling, with all of the related code presented in GitHub. A live version of this tool can be found at: https://research.ng-london.org.uk/modelling/

Abstract Background Accurate comparable prevalence proportions are required to better understand the epidemiology of frailty. Estimates in many countries are missing or incomparable. The Global Burden of Disease Frailty Index (GBD-FI) applies the deficit accumulation model to generate frailty scores from items available in the Global Burden of Disease study. Objective To externally validate the GBD-FI. Methods Data were obtained from the Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). A 20-item modified GBD-FI was compared with established frailty measures: a 70-item frailty index (FI-70), the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), Frailty Phenotype (FP) and SHARE-FI. Area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were fitted to examine diagnostic accuracy for frailty and predictive validity for 2-year mortality. Results In total, 31,624 participants aged ≥50 years from 15 countries were included. Frailty prevalence was 22% using the GBD-FI (ranging from 8% in Switzerland to 41% in Poland). The GBD-FI had good to excellent diagnostic accuracy for frailty, irrespective of approach; the AUC ranged from 0.86 (95% confidence interval: 0.85–0.87) measuring frailty using the CFS to 0.94 (0.93–0.94) with the FI-70. The GBD-FI had similar accuracy for 2-year mortality (AUC 0.71, 0.69–0.74) compared with the CFS (0.73; P = 0.186), FP (0.73; P = 0.392) and SHARE-FI (0.70; P = 0.255) but lower than the FI-70 (0.76; P < 0.001). Conclusion The GBD-FI demonstrated concurrent and predictive validity, suggesting it is a valid measure of frailty. It has the potential to be an efficient, replicable and consistent approach to comparing frailty between countries and regions across time using GBD data.

Abstract: The article explores the historical significance and agency of itinerant showpeople, a marginalised and frequently overlooked community, in the late 19th century. Focusing on the French Chambre Syndicale Patronale des Voyageurs Forains (CSPVF) and its journal Le Voyageur Forain, this study sheds light on the struggle of showpeople to safeguard their economic interests, counter societal prejudices, and gain respectability in society. The CSPVF, Europe's first employers' association of this kind, played a pivotal role in supporting itinerant entrepreneurs. By analysing the CSPVF's organisational structure, professional networks, and efforts at integration, the article underscores the socio-economic dynamics of the era and between individuals positioned at the perceived centre and periphery of society. Drawing on union periodicals, the study examines the CSPVF's objectives and internal dynamics, the initiatives aimed at professionalising the itinerant showpeople's trade and its influence on economic policies. Additionally, the research explores the mechanisms of inclusion and exclusion encountered by showpeople within and outside their community and their strategies to combat stigmatisation while seeking respectability. By addressing these themes, the article contributes to a broader understanding of labour history, syndicalism, and the interplay of social identity and economic pressures in the itinerant entertainment industry during the late nineteenth century.